We are in the process of updating the algorithm for the Covid Curve Tracker and creating a new website that updates the predictions automatically. Thanks for your patience and stay tuned!
COVID Curve Tracker – May 24, 2020
HOW OUR CHARTS ARE DIFFERENT: Most others charts are based on complex modeling that guesses at how many people will contract the virus and die. We start at the other end: we look at the deaths that have already occurred and create a predictive model based on the patterns of deaths in that country or state. These patterns inform each country’s unique “Covid Curve.”
The following graphs show the curves for peak and total deaths. The shaded area indicates uncertainty.
World excluding China
World excluding China
7,300
Peak deaths per day
April 15
Date of peak deaths
440,000
Total deaths
Regions
Africa
Africa
72
Peak deaths per day
May 8
Date of peak deaths
5,300
Total deaths
Americas
Americas
3,200
Peak deaths per day
April 18
Date of peak deaths
200,000
Total deaths
Asia excluding China
Asia excluding China
390
Peak deaths per day
May 21
Date of peak deaths
33,000
Total deaths
Europe
Europe
4,200
Peak deaths per day
April 7
Date of peak deaths
190,000
Total deaths
Countries
Belgium
Belgium
330
Peak deaths per day
April 14
Date of peak deaths
9,900
Total deaths
Brazil
Brazil
750
Peak deaths per day
May 15
Date of peak deaths
140,000
Total deaths
Canada
Canada
180
Peak deaths per day
May 4
Date of peak deaths
8,500
Total deaths
China
China
180
Peak deaths per day
February 16
Date of peak deaths
4,700
Total deaths
France
France
1100
Peak deaths per day
April 7
Date of peak deaths
30,000
Total deaths
Germany
Germany
230
Peak deaths per day
April 18
Date of peak deaths
9,100
Total deaths
India
India
140
Peak deaths per day
May 21
Date of peak deaths
18,000
Total deaths
Indonesia
Indonesia
40
Peak deaths per day
May 21
Date of peak deaths
2,000
Total deaths
Iran
Iran
150
Peak deaths per day
April 6
Date of peak deaths
8,200
Total deaths
Ireland
Ireland
23
Peak deaths per day
April
Date of peak deaths
1,700
Total deaths
Italy
Italy
820
Peak deaths per day
March 31
Date of peak deaths
35,000
Total deaths
Mexico
Mexico
250
Peak deaths per day
May 15
Date of peak deaths
54,000
Total deaths
Netherlands
Netherlands
150
Peak deaths per day
April 6
Date of peak deaths
6,100
Total deaths
Peru
Peru
130
Peak deaths per day
May 19
Date of peak deaths
16,000
Total deaths
Romania
Romania
28
Peak deaths per day
April 30
Date of peak deaths
1,600
Total deaths
Russia
Russia
98
Peak deaths per day
May 11
Date of peak deaths
5,500
Total deaths
Spain
Spain
870
Peak deaths per day
April 2
Date of peak deaths
30,000
Total deaths
Turkey
Turkey
120
Peak deaths per day
April 20
Date of peak deaths
4,800
Total deaths
United Kingdom
United Kingdom
960
Peak deaths per day
April 12
Date of peak deaths
41,000
Total deaths
United States
United States
2,700
Peak deaths per day
April 19
Date of peak deaths
120,000
Total deaths
States
California
California
83
Peak deaths per day
April 20
Date of peak deaths
5,600
Total deaths
Connecticut
Connecticut
120
Peak deaths per day
April 23
Date of peak deaths
4,500
Total deaths
Florida
Florida
61
Peak deaths per day
May 5
Date of peak deaths
3,500
Total deaths
Georgia
Georgia
43
Peak deaths per day
April 18
Date of peak deaths
2,600
Total deaths
Illinois
Illinois
120
Peak deaths per day
May 10
Date of peak deaths
7,400
Total deaths
Indiana
Indiana
63
Peak deaths per day
April 29
Date of peak deaths
2,700
Total deaths
Massachusetts
Massachusetts
160
Peak deaths per day
April 18
Date of peak deaths
7,900
Total deaths
Maryland
Maryland
56
Peak deaths per day
April 28
Date of peak deaths
3,400
Total deaths
Michigan
Michigan
150
Peak deaths per day
April 13
Date of peak deaths
5,700
Total deaths
New Jersey
New Jersey
280
Peak deaths per day
April 18
Date of peak deaths
13,000
Total deaths
New York
New York
760
Peak deaths per day
April 11
Date of peak deaths
25,000
Total deaths
Ohio
Ohio
60
Peak deaths per day
May 22
Date of peak deaths
3,200
Total deaths
Washington
Washington
24
Peak deaths per day
April 4
Date of peak deaths
1,300
Total deaths
