We are in the process of updating the algorithm for the Covid Curve Tracker and creating a new website that updates the predictions automatically. Thanks for your patience and stay tuned!
COVID Curve Tracker – May 24, 2020
HOW OUR CHARTS ARE DIFFERENT: Most others charts are based on complex modeling that guesses at how many people will contract the virus and die. We start at the other end: we look at the deaths that have already occurred and create a predictive model based on the patterns of deaths in that country or state. These patterns inform each country’s unique “Covid Curve.”
The following graphs show the curves for peak and total deaths. The shaded area indicates uncertainty.
World excluding China
April 15Date of peak deaths
Regions
Americas
April 18Date of peak deaths
Asia excluding China
May 21Date of peak deaths
Europe
April 7Date of peak deaths
Countries
Belgium
April 14Date of peak deaths
Brazil
May 15Date of peak deaths
China
February 16Date of peak deaths
France
April 7Date of peak deaths
Germany
April 18Date of peak deaths
India
May 21Date of peak deaths
Indonesia
May 21Date of peak deaths
Iran
April 6Date of peak deaths
Italy
March 31Date of peak deaths
Mexico
May 15Date of peak deaths
Netherlands
April 6Date of peak deaths
Peru
May 19Date of peak deaths
Romania
April 30Date of peak deaths
Russia
May 11Date of peak deaths
Spain
April 2Date of peak deaths
Turkey
April 20Date of peak deaths
United Kingdom
April 12Date of peak deaths
United States
April 19Date of peak deaths
States
California
April 20Date of peak deaths
Connecticut
April 23Date of peak deaths
Georgia
April 18Date of peak deaths
Illinois
May 10Date of peak deaths
Indiana
April 29Date of peak deaths
Massachusetts
April 18Date of peak deaths
Maryland
April 28Date of peak deaths
Michigan
April 13Date of peak deaths
New Jersey
April 18Date of peak deaths
New York
April 11Date of peak deaths
Ohio
May 22Date of peak deaths
Washington
April 4Date of peak deaths