Note to readers: June 12, 2020

We are in the process of updating the algorithm for the Covid Curve Tracker and creating a new website that updates the predictions automatically. Thanks for your patience and stay tuned!

COVID Curve Tracker – May 24, 2020

HOW OUR CHARTS ARE DIFFERENT: Most others charts are based on complex modeling that guesses at how many people will contract the virus and die. We start at the other end: we look at the deaths that have already occurred and create a predictive model based on the patterns of deaths in that country or state. These patterns inform each country’s unique “Covid Curve.”

The following graphs show the curves for peak and total deaths. The shaded area indicates uncertainty.